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22 December 2020

Kochi.

The assembly elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam are expected to be held in April-May 2022.

The political parties in these states have, more or less, started campaigning for the polls.

The dailies have started reporting about the forthcoming elections.

For instance, a story in The Hindu 'Poll panel gears up for Assembly polls' on page -4 of the Kochi city edition is about Chief Electoral Officer, Kerala, Teeka Ram Meena's interview saying "almost 55,000 M3 model electronic voting machines and almost as many voter verifiable paper audit trail machines will arrive in the State over the next few days as part of the preparations for the Assembly polls next year."

An opinion piece in the daily (tagged 'premium' on the daily's news-site. Difficult times, save your money) is an analysis, 'Tamil Nadu politics after the matriarch, patriarch' by Mr. Narendra Subramanian, a Professor of Political Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 

The writer forecasts that the DMK is 'better placed' and the party's prospects look much brighter than AIADMK's in the forthcoming elections and over the coming decade.

This should bring cheer to the supporters of DMK and it's allies. 

But the author fails to substantiate his claim. He just says, "the results of the 2019 parliamentary elections and Assembly by-elections held since Jayalalithaa's passing underline the DMK's status as the electoral favourite," and gives the data of vote shares in those elections.

It fails to look into the present scenario and how things would unfold in the months before the polls.

One key question is how many smaller outfits DMK president M.K.Stalin would be able to rope in to strengthen the opposition front. 

The article fails to mention the impact the two actors, Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth, and the likely presence of Saskkala--I mean the votes they are likely to split if they contest alone-- would have on the prospects of the two Dravidian rivals. 

To me, looking at the current scenario, it seems like the contest is evenly poised.

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(The M1 and M2 are the older versions of electronic voting machines. M2 EVMs (2006-10)  can cater to a maximum of 64 candidates including NOTA. There is provision for 16 candidates in a Balloting Unit. ... However, M3 EVMs (Post 2013), EVMs can cater to a maximum of 384 candidates including NOTA by connecting 24 Balloting Units.)

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